NDN TAKES STEPS TO WIN HISPANIC VOTERS:
To:
Interested Parties
From:
Simon Rosenberg, Maria Cardona, Joe Garcia, and Belen Mendoza
Date:
Monday, December 13, 2004
Subject:
Learning from the 2004 campaign in the Hispanic Community
Starting in the spring of 2002 the New Democrat Network began ringing the alarm bells - Republicans had a new and intense strategy led by Karl Rove to increase their vote with Hispanics. Left unchallenged, this new strategy would change the game in key states and across the country in ways that would make it hard for Democrats to build a 21st century majority coalition.
It is now two and a half years later, and we need to be worried. Bush has increased the Republican share of the Hispanic vote from 21% in 1996 to at least 40% in 2004 (some exits have it higher). In recent months, the Republicans' 24/7/365 appeal to Hispanics has only continued to accelerate. The Bush Administration made it a top priority to elect Mel Martinez to the US Senate in Florida. He is now America's first Cuban-American Senator. Bush's first cabinet appointment of his second term was Alberto Gonzales as Attorney General. Bush traveled to Latin America for four days after the election, visiting several countries. While there he held photo-ops not only with politicians, but also with the popular Colombians who play baseball in America. They revived their moribund guest-worker program. They appointed a highlyrespected Hispanic business leader to be Commerce Secretary.
Democrats must be clear about one thing - if we do not develop a comprehensive strategy to match what the Republicans are doing in the Hispanic community, and reverse their recent gains, we should give up our dreams of building a new majority for a new century. The Republicans are operating at a different strategic level than we are, and fixing this incredible and dangerous imbalance must simply be one of our highest strategic priorities as a Party in the months ahead. Worried by these trends, the New Democrat Network took the lead this last cycle in crafting a new Hispanic strategy for Democrats.
What We Learned
1. Hispanics are a diverse, swing vote. As many of you know, the New Democrat Network began its Hispanic Project in the spring of 2002 to build support among Hispanics for Democratic values and the Democratic issue agenda. We had grown concerned about Republican inroads in what had been a reliably Democratic group. After this strong showing by Bush we can no longer treat Hispanics as anything but a swing vote that leans Democratic.
Hispanics are also diverse. No two states have a similar make up. Some are more Spanish-dominant, some more English-dominant. Some have more Mexicans, some more Puerto Ricans, some have Spanish families who arrived in the 16th century, some have South and Central Americans who arrived in the 90s and of course there are the Cubans.
Let's look at the numbers. In the five most heavily contested states, among Hispanics Democrats received 44% in Florida, 56% in Arizona and New Mexico, 60% in Nevada and 68% in Colorado. Different voters, different campaigns, different results. There is no single national strategy to speak to Hispanics, no silver bullet.
2. Despite Bush's gains, Democrats did much better in the states with aggressive Hispanic campaigns, and actually picked up ground in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado we picked up one point from 2000, moving from 67% to 68%, which represents a 4-point shift overall in favor of Democrats. In Florida we went from 34% in 2000 to 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. In New Mexico and Nevada we lost some ground from 2000 but ran above the national average with Kerry at 56% of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico and 60% in Nevada. What this shows is the Hispanic vote can be influenced by good campaigns, and in these four states where the Democrats fought the hardest we saw significant gains and above-average performances.
3. Democrats' greatest gains were in Florida. Hispanics went for Bush 65% - 34% in 2000, but just 56% - 44% this time. With an estimated 1 million Hispanics voting in the 2004 election according to the exit polls, this represents a net shift of roughly 190,000 votes for Democrats.
Bush experienced a similar decline in the Cuban-American vote, going from 82% - 17% Bush in 2000 to just 72% - 28% this time
Much of the statewide gain came from the huge increase in the non-Cuban Hispanic community which went from 40% of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2000 to 55% percent this time, and stayed reliably Democratic.
This dramatic turnaround in Florida is very good news for Democrats.
4. The Kerry/DNC effort was not sufficient. While the New Democrat Network spent $6 million communicating to Hispanics this cycle, our effort talked about issues not candidates, as our mission was to educate Hispanics about the Democratic agenda and did so through eight months of sustained television advertising. Our campaign was designed to improve understanding among Hispanics of the ideas and values of Democrats. It was the job of the Kerry campaign and the DNC to bring voters to Kerry himself. The results make it clear that that effort was not sufficient.
The Path Forward
The changing demographics of America make it clear that we cannot ignore these lessons. The rate of growth in the nation's Hispanic population from 2000 to 2003 was 14 percent - almost four times that of the total population. If we are to be a majority part in the 21st century, Democrats must:
1. Communicate aggressively and directly with Hispanic voters on the air, in Spanish and English, to persuade them and educate them on the Democratic agenda. Republican gains with Hispanics have been built on their efforts to persuade, and we can no longer afford to simply communicate about voter registration and turnout.
2. Acknowledge that not all Latino voters are the same. We have to craft effective messages that speak to Hispanics in ways that are sensitive to their culture and needs.
3. Target Hispanic voters in every state, not just battleground states. Latinos are the fastest growing population in America. Not just in Texas or Florida, but in Kansas too.
4. Make proficiency in Latin American affairs and policy a prerequisite. If we cannot speak to Hispanic voters about issues that matter to them, then we cannot expect to successfully persuade them.
5. Invest in building long-term relationships with Hispanics at the local level. By nurturing rising stars in Latino communities, we can ensure that our party is the party of new Hispanic leaders.
6. Ensure that a Hispanic strategy is a core part of every campaign.
